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植草 一秀
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Irrational Exuberance Paperback – April 10, 2001

by Robert J. Shiller (Author)
4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 66 ratings
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With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the “new economy,” and the larger implications of “irrational exuberance.”

In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today’s explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 reference, “irrational exuberance,” to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller’s unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing—a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.
Previous page
  1. Print length
    319 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Broadway Books
  4. Publication date
    April 10, 2001
  5. Dimensions
    5.5 x 1 x 8.13 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0767907183
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0767907187
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

New York Times Bestseller

"Should be compulsory reading for anybody interested in Wall Street or financially exposed to it."
—The Economist

"The national bestseller that revolutionized the way we think about the stock market"
—Robert J. Shiller

“A dose of realism that serious investors will ignore at their peril.”
—The Wall Street Journal

One of Business Week’s Ten Best Business Books of 2000

“Irrational Exuberance [is] a dazzling, richly textured, provocative book…by far the most important book about the stock market since Jeremy J. Siegel’s 1994 Stocks for the Long Run, offering a cogent statement of the bears’ view of events to come. Shiller is not merely a bear—he is a grizzly.”
—Business Week

From the Inside Flap

With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the ?new economy,? and the larger implications of ?irrational exuberance.?

In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today?s explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan?s infamous 1996 reference, ?irrational exuberance,? to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller?s unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing?a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Broadway Books; First Edition (April 10, 2001)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 319 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0767907183
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0767907187
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 10.4 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.5 x 1 x 8.13 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 66 ratings

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  1. 植草 一秀

    植草 一秀

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Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
4.3 out of 5
66 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Galen P. Cawley Jr.
5.0 out of 5 stars Learn the Arguments
Reviewed in the United States on March 29, 2000
Verified Purchase
This book is a superb exposition of the state of today's stock market. I cannot recommend it too highly. It is an excellent and readable blending of modern finance and behavioral finance set in historical context. If history is at all relevant, then I believe Shiller to be largely correct.
Is it different this time? That is the question. Previous reviewers in this space, among them J Weber, were right to suggest reading "Irrational Exuberance" alongside and in contradistinction to "New Era" works, such as Glassman's "Dow 36,000". You be the judge.
But don't prejudge the book on the basis of the rest of J Weber's review. Without wanting to engage in philippics, most of his comments regarding the book are inaccurate, inconsistent, and even self-contradictory. To wit:
To call Shiller "irrational" and an "old-school economist" who "has no understanding of the current market" simply because he disagrees with valuations is simply an ad hominem attack.
To say that Shiller "would only invest in bonds" is inaccurate. In today's context, yes, he would favor bonds over stocks, but not always and in every situation.
Check the facts. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it is not true that history "shows no better place to be than in the stock market". What about from 1929-1954 or from 1968-1982? You can disagree with Schiller's conclusions and still learn alot from his fascinating account of market history.
But you can't argue that the current market is "different" and at the same time invoke history as a proven guide. (And a factually incorrect version of history, at that!)
Moreover, to the extent that Shiller does recommend bonds, he favors TIPS, or inflation indexed bonds. A guaranteed real return of 4% is boring but not too bad over the long run.
Finally, does Mr. Weber know how to add and subtract? Or is basic arithmetic also a casualty of "New Era" accounting? He writes that "Let me see at around 6% a bond will only help my money keep up with inflation". Gee, last time I checked, the CPI was below 3%. 6% - 3% = a real yield of 3%, even if it's not indexed. Let's at least get the math straight.
Why is it so controversial or threatening to note that financial reward involves risk; that stocks, like other assets, can become overpriced; and that as a result, investors can actually lose money?
35 people found this helpful
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Abacus
5.0 out of 5 stars Right on the money 3 years later.
Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2003
Verified Purchase
This is a treaty on Behavioral Finance. Shiller makes a strong case that markets are not efficient, but respond to crowd psychology.
Shiller rebuts the Efficient Market Hypothesis. He has analyzed many U.S. stock market crashes. In each case, he did not find information absorbed by institutional and individual investors that justified the market downturns. In all cases, it appears the investors were "aware" of the reasons for the market downturn as explained by the financial press after the downturn occurred. For Shiller, this means that the reasons were false, and that investors do not digest information in such an efficient and immediate way as stated in the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Shiller believes investors are irrational, and trade based on certain premises such as herd instinct, momentum, belief that stocks always go up. These beliefs are reinforced by the media. The resulting market valuation at the time the book was published (first quarter 2000, the market's peak) was far above its intrinsic value. As they say, the rest is history. Shiller's timing was perfect. We have been in a Bear market ever since.
15 people found this helpful
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Rats
4.0 out of 5 stars Read it
Reviewed in the United States on July 5, 2000
Verified Purchase
This book is very commented upon, so I'll try to make this short.
First - it walks like a duck, but is it a duck? In a book entirely devoted to the subject of overvaluation, I'd expect better proof than aggregate P/E ratios and circumstantial evidence from psychological research. The industry - self-interested as it is - routinely produces valuation measures by sector, including eg P/E to growth which should be a better gauge than P/E alone. Doing this places most of the blame on TMT segments, not on the whole market.
Second - policy implications are weakish. Although the investing-for-retirement issue is important, most of the advice is "do not put all eggs in the equity basket", which is just fine, and "buy TIPS", which is also fine, but overall the policy chapter reminds a bit of the mountain giving birth to a mouse.
Third - the book is clearly written, well documented, and tries to look beyond the US scene (though most of the "behavioral" stuff is in fact very American). Which is fine as most US writers do not give a damn for evidence from the rest of the world.
Fourth - stars should measure the book's usefulness, not its adherence to what the reviewer thinks. If you sift the reviews with this criterion (taking out the angry and the hagiographic ones), the average star grade increases.
This says the book should be read, and that's my conclusion too. I even irrationally bought it before it was discounted, but maybe that will be the market's story too, in a few months!
7 people found this helpful
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J. Rogelio
5.0 out of 5 stars Sui generis. An excellent book!
Reviewed in the United States on March 15, 2013
Verified Purchase
I'ts been a while since I read this fine book. It was written by a pioneering economist in Behavioral Economics research. Detractor of Efficient Markets Hypothesis and a pundit of Market Volatility. This book is a milestone in financial innovation since it looks for support in other sciences such as psychology, epidemology, sociology, etc. to give a sound explanation of economic phenomena. Furthermore, Dr. Shiller has been an ethical economist that abandoned classical and neoclassical economics just to oppose them and try to give foundations of economic science from a heterodoxus point of view. Some say that having Barro editing his legendary Macroeconomics in order to add a chapter including recent research in Bahavioral Economics would be something like burping in an elegant dinner. Anyway, if you are interested in reading non-mainstream economics, this book is for you. If you are devoted to religious-like economics, this book will make you feel really bad.
One person found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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Cyriac
5.0 out of 5 stars It is very rarely that one finds a down to ...
Reviewed in India on October 11, 2014
Verified Purchase
It is very rarely that one finds a down to earth book about stock markets and the myths that has been created in the minds of public about them. Shiller has exposed the hollowness of many claims through his meticulous research. His warning about investing pension funds in stocks is quite timely. Even though this book was first published in 2000, his warning about housing bubbles was very timely and vey accurate.
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Antoine
5.0 out of 5 stars Informations de grande valeur
Reviewed in France on January 15, 2005
Verified Purchase
Parmi tous les ouvrages et articles censés informer sur les marchés financiers, voici un livre exceptionnel, qui expose très clairement une grande quantité de données rigoureuses sur l'évolution historique des marchés. La publication de cet ouvrage en 2000, à contre-courant de la propagande massive, à cette époque, en faveur de la "nouvelle économie" et de fabuleux enrichissements sans risque en Bourse, montre l'indépendance et le sérieux de l'auteur.
En même temps, rien à voir avec les discours rebattus des critiques du marché par les nostalgiques d'une économie socialiste. Un ouvrage très instructif, félicitations!
4 people found this helpful
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pkd
5.0 out of 5 stars A lucid presentation of financial market by a maestro.
Reviewed in India on June 28, 2018
Verified Purchase
An outstanding presentation of the financial market by an eminent person.A must read book for serious investors. This book will surely help the investors to identify the imminent phase of a market ,i.e. the bull or the bear.
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Barry Andreasen
4.0 out of 5 stars Four Stars
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 27, 2014
Verified Purchase
Fascinating insight into the world of finance.
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Aman
4.0 out of 5 stars It gives you insight of how stock market is affected ...
Reviewed in India on March 14, 2017
Verified Purchase
It gives you insight of how stock market is affected by events and public thinking. It may not serve purpose of being an investment guide, but yes it does tell a lot about irrational exuberance.
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